A surprise advance by Syrian rebel groups has caught the Syrian regime by surprise. The regime, backed by Iran and Russia, has lost ground near Aleppo.
This is the largest setback for the regime and its Iranian backers in many years. Video from Syria shows the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) inside a Syrian regime base of the 46th Regiment.
According to other reports from Syria, an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer was killed during the rebel advance.
The attacks by the rebel groups are important because they indicate their intention to restart fighting with the regime. This comes after days of strikes by the regime against areas in Idlib, northern Syria.
This area is controlled by HTS, which is one of the more extreme of the rebel groups. It controls Idlib, while neighboring areas are occupied by Turkey and Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups.
Over the past several years, Turkey has sought to take control of many of the former Syrian rebel groups and use them to control areas Ankara took over in northern Syria. Turkey’s control of the rebel groups has clipped their wings and turned them into a tool of Ankara’s policy.
Response to or anticipation of larger attack
Turkey wants reconciliation with Iran, Russia, and the Syrian regime. This leaves primarily only HTS and affiliated groups with the capability of conducting independent operations.
The surprise attack on the Syrian regime came after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect on Wednesday. It appears that the Iranian axis in the region was focused on southern Lebanon, and the Syrian regime did not expect an attack from Idlib.
HTS has said the attack was actually intended to deter regime aggression. This means it is either a response to recent attacks on Idlib or an attempt to preempt a broader attack that was suspected.
It is possible that the Iranian-backed Syrian regime would have wanted to see if it could get a “win” in Idlib after watching Hezbollah take a beating at the hands of Israel.
The Syrian regime lacks troops and is exhausted from a decade of civil war. Russia, which backs the regime, has been focused on fighting Ukraine. Iran is focused on Israel.
Hezbollah has lost thousands of fighters in the war with Israel. As such, it cannot send men to fight on the Aleppo front, where it has fought in the past.
In addition, the crossings to Syria from Lebanon have been destroyed, in some cases by Israeli airstrikes, making it hard for Hezbollah to move fighters via Qusayr or other areas, even if it wanted to.
This is therefore a perfect time for the Syrian opposition to launch an offensive. The Syrian groups are divided, however, and this has hampered their abilities in the past.
It is important to consider that Turkey would likely prefer not to see a conflict grow near Aleppo. But Ankara wouldn’t mind using this as an excuse to attack Kurdish groups, as it has in the past.
Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups are often used by Turkey to attack Kurdish groups, such as the YPG and the US-backed SDF. Recently, there have been clashes near Manbij and in other areas of eastern Syria.
This means that the HTS offensive is important, but it remains unclear whether the group can achieve more significant gains outside of a narrow corridor of several kilometers near Aleppo.
If the rebel group can reach Aleppo, it would be a major achievement. The fall of Aleppo in 2016 to the regime was a major setback for the rebels.
