“(A Trump or Harris win is) two roads to the same cliff,” said Mr Tangen.
Similarly, Mr Steven Okun, senior advisor from the public affairs consultancy firm APAC Advisors, told CNA that whoever takes the Oval Office will not have “directional change” in China policy.
“US-China policy will be the same under either a Harris or Trump administration. There will be more tariffs and more investment restrictions,” he said.
Both presidential contenders have already made clear what they think about China.
“I will make sure … that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century,” pledged Ms Harris in late August when she accepted the Democratic nomination for the presidency.
Meanwhile, her Republican rival Mr Trump – who launched a trade war against China while in the White House from 2017 to 2021 – has vowed to get even tougher on China and “completely eliminate dependence” on the country of 1.4 billion people.
China is clear-eyed on this – and sees a Trump or Harris presidency as determining the degree of containment towards the world’s No 2 economy, said Dr Chen Dongxiao, a senior research fellow and president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), at a recent public lecture in Singapore.
Dr Chen highlighted that in the event of a Trump victory, he would have another four years in office without the pressure of re-election. Under American law, a US president can only serve two terms.
He explained that this would be of concern to China, as Mr Trump will have “more space and potential” to mobilise federal agencies in order to serve his “confrontational, anti-China containment policy and measures”.
China is not expected to publicly state or even allude to who it wants as America’s next leader, observers have noted, because it does not want to be accused of interference in the US election. Chinese officials have repeatedly stated the US presidential election is the Americans’ internal affair.
“They don’t have a vote. They do have a preference. But when they don’t get their preference, they have to work with whoever occupies the Oval Office in the White House,” said Dr Choong on Beijing’s perspective, based on his conversations with Chinese academics.
Professor Jia Qingguo, former dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University and a senior member of China’s top political advisory body, believes what matters is whether the incumbent or opposition party’s candidate comes up top, with the first scenario – in this case, a Harris presidency – being more beneficial for Beijing.
“The reason is in a presidential election, the opposition party would condemn or has to condemn the ruling party’s policies. When it comes to (policies on China), invariably … the opposition party candidate would condemn the ruling party for being too soft on China, and then they would vow to make some changes,” he explained at a recent conference in Singapore.
“When they get elected, they would have to honour some of their campaign promises – whether they are realistic or not – and (when trying to do so), the relationship would be in trouble,” he added.
Prof Jia also highlighted the potential for miscommunication during the presidential transition as some “tacit understandings” might not be passed on, potentially adding friction between the Chinese government and the new US administration.
In the US, a presidential transition is a formal process where a president-elect takes over the administration of the federal government from the incumbent president, giving the incoming leader and their team time to prepare for governance.
Conversely, a win by the incumbent party candidate – in this case, Ms Harris – would likely mean a smoother transition and some level of policy continuity – predictability that Beijing is likely to favour, he suggested.
