As the saying goes, it’s the quiet ones you have to worry about.
There is just one ranked matchup on Saturday (Boston College at Missouri), and all but one ranked favorite is laying less than 13 points.
Here’s how I see the Week 3 board in college football:
Alabama vs. Wisconsin (Noon ET, Fox)
For years under Nick Saban, bettors have paid a premium to back the Crimson Tide.
It explains why Saban, the greatest coach in the history of the sport, only covered 51.2 percent of the time as a road favorite in the past 10 years.
Two things are trending in favor of Bama-backers on Saturday — a new offense-minded head coach and a sluggish performance in Week 2.
After boat-racing Western Kentucky in the opener 56-0, Alabama punted on three of its first four possessions against South Florida at Bryant Denney Stadium.
That slow start put a cover (-31) out of reach despite an explosive fourth quarter that featured 28 Alabama points.
I contend that the slow start was an aberration and that Wisconsin is ill-equipped to slow Alabama’s playmakers.
Ryan Williams, the lightning-quick freshman receiver, will seem even faster after Wisconsin’s warmups against Western Michigan and South Dakota.
Even with a sleepy first half against South Florida, the Tide’s six plays of 40-plus yards from scrimmage ranks second nationally.
Kalen DeBoer’s offense remains explosive and if it strikes early, Wisconsin’s pop-gun offense won’t hold up in a shootout.
Phil Longo’s “Dairy Raid” passing attack is more horizontal than vertical, stretching the width of the field, while peppering passes inside of 10 yards.
Tyler Van Dyke has just two big-time throws, per PFF, and a yards-per-attempt average of just 6.4. Dinking and dunking won’t cut it.
Alabama has been tested by two veteran quarterbacks in 2024.
Western Kentucky’s T.J. Finley and South Florida’s Byrum Brown have thrown for more than 10,000 career yards, but against the Tide, they averaged fewer than 100 yards while taking five sacks and throwing two interceptions.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Van Dyke and the Badgers suffer the same fate on Saturday.
Barring poor turnover luck, this game should be an Alabama runaway and it’s worth sprinkling on the alternate line up to Alabama -24 at +210.
Recommendation: Alabama -16.5.
North Texas vs. Texas Tech (Noon ET, FS1)
My projections call for this total to be 76, so why sportsbooks lower the figure by a touchdown?
Because Unders have been cashing at a 60 percent clip in games involving G5 teams this season.
A big reason for that is underdogs have been looking to slow games way down in the hopes of pulling off an upset.
Though that might have worked for Northern Illinois in South Bend last week, I can assure you North Texas and Texas Tech have no intention of playing slow.
The Red Raiders run 88 plays per game (fourth), and when you remove garbage-time snaps, they’re squeezing in plays every 21 seconds.
Betting on College Football?
The Mean Green, not to be outdone, are top 30 in tempo and their pace numbers were dragged down by a comfortable win over FCS Stephen F. Austin in which they bled the clock in the fourth quarter protecting a 15-point lead.
They have an explosive passing attack that laid 52 points on South Alabama in the opener.
I fully expect them to rev their tempo and passing attack back up against a dreadful Texas Tech defense.
The Red Raiders are giving up 515.5 yards per game (129th) and enter with nine players on their two-deep listed as questionable.
Weather conditions are ideal for a shootout as both defenses wilt in the northwest Texas heat. Game-time temps are expected to reach 97 degrees.
Recommendation: Over 69.5.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
