Iowa caucus victor Donald Trump shifts to a vastly different political landscape this week where he’ll compete for notoriously fickle and independent New Hampshire voters with rival Nikki Haley.
The bitterly cold Hawkeye State – dominated by social conservatives and rural voters – will be in the rearview mirror as soon as Trump touches down in the more moderate Granite State next Tuesday.
The former president’s previous two big wins in New Hampshire help but won’t guarantee him a resounding first place in the Jan. 23 Republican primary.
But after his dominating Iowa win, he could essentially lock up the race with a resounding knockout victory in New Hampshire over Haley, who was surging in the polls there in the last month.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will have trouble staying in the race unless he scores some kind of major upset after Iowa.
DeSantis’s campaign was banking on a strong second place in Iowa and devoted more resources there than anyone but it didn’t happen. He barely edged out Haley for a distant second place showing. The Florida governor will travel to South Carolina and New Hampshire Tuesday but it’s hard to know how he gains any momentum and his support has shriveled up in New Hampshire.
Haley, denied even a runner-up finish in Iowa, is seen as being within striking distance of Trump in the Granite State after the withdrawal of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But she failed to gain any kind of bounce out of Iowa, where she spent tens of millions of dollars in a wasted effort.
“I came to Iowa early and often and I kept coming back,” she said Monday night in her concession speech. “Tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race. The question before Americans now is clear, do you want more of the same or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership?”
She added, “Our campaign is the last hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare.”
The next week is critical for Haley. Anything less than a win over Trump in the Granite State will probably relegate her to also-ran status and make it almost impossible to stop Trump barring some kind of legal hurdle.
The next stop after New Hampshire is Haley’s home state of South Carolina, but even there polls show Trump has a large lead.
Trump’s dominance among Republican conservatives will not stop after he leaves New Hampshire, and could carry him to an easy nomination win.
The Iowa caucus – with Trump cruising to victory – proved to be costly for DeSantis and Haley, who each spent more than $30 million in the state for a weak second place.
Iowa in general has faded as a presidential destination in recent years, especially now that Democrats have bounced its caucus back in the schedule.
Does anyone remember who won the Iowa caucus in 2016? Hint – it’s a long-forgotten Texas senator who never capitalized on his victory.
Trump managed to easily survive his second-place showing to Ted Cruz and go on to crush his rivals in New Hampshire eight days later.
