Harris, the 38-year-old elevated to the top job in April after Varadkar’s surprise resignation, could lose the taoiseach’s chair soon to the 64-year-old Martin. The Fianna Fáil leader last held the post from mid-2020 to the end of 2022 as part of the outgoing coalition’s novel power-sharing agreement.
Harris’ gaffe-prone campaign has cost Fine Gael its early poll lead. It now narrowly trails Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil, but all three are essentially bunched close to the 20 percent support mark.
None of the parties is fielding enough candidates to win a parliamentary majority alone. Reflecting Ireland’s fast-growing population, the next parliament will grow to a 174-member chamber, making 88 seats the new minimum necessary for a governing majority. Fianna Fáil is running 82 candidates, Fine Gael 80 and Sinn Féin 71.
Given that Tuesday night’s lackluster fight did little to move the dial, polls and bookmakers indicate it’s unlikely that any of the three top parties will top even 50 seats. This makes a return of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil duo, propped up by another small party or independents, the most expected outcome.
It was telling that Martin, the mild-mannered great survivor of Irish politics, grew exasperated only once during Tuesday night’s nearly two-hour debate — to shoot down the idea he might cut a postelection deal with Mary Lou, rather than his current beau, Simon, should Sinn Féin fare better than the slumping Fine Gael.
“Just because you get 20 percent of the vote doesn’t entitle you to be in government. It never did,” said Martin, who then was asked if he admired anything about McDonald as a leader.
“I’m not getting into kinda silly stuff now,” he shot back. “This is about forming a government.”
