Mauritius’ opposition coalition – the Alliance of Change – won the country’s 10 November 2024 election by a landslide, taking all the seats in parliament. Its leader, Navin Ramgoolam, has been appointed prime minister.
Mauritian politics scholar Roukaya Kasenally spoke to The Conversation Africa about what drove this outcome.
What’s behind the opposition’s landslide win?
The win by the opposition coalition was a clear sweep. No candidates from the outgoing government were elected; it’s what’s referred to as a 60-0. Mauritius uses the “first past the post” electoral model, where candidates with the highest number of votes are elected. Each of the 20 constituencies elects three members of parliament, often resulting in a “winner-takes-all” outcome.
The opposition coalition – the Alliance of Change – received 61.38% of the popular vote and the outgoing government’s coalition got 27.3%. This is a massive victory. In the previous election in 2019, the Militant Socialist Movement, led by Pravind Jugnauth, won the election with only 37% of the popular vote.
This is the third time in Mauritius’ post independence political history that a clear sweep has happened. The first was during the 1982 election and the second in 1995. This 60-0 phenomenon usually happens when political parties have been in power for a relatively long time.
In all three instances it was clear that voters had developed “political fatigue”. This can happen when incumbents stay for two (or more) electoral cycles and abuse the state apparatus, promote a culture of patronage and nepotism and pay little or no heed to checks and balances.
In the case of the outgoing regime, Jugnauth’s government had been in power for 10 years.
Political fatigue clearly played a part in the trouncing. But there were other reasons for the opposition’s clear victory.
Jugnauth’s government had become bogged down in scandals. The 2020 Wakashio oil spill was a major one. Thousands of Mauritians took to the streets to protest against the government’s incompetence in dealing with the ecological disaster. Another was the cover-up of an alleged murder of one of the prime minister’s political agents.
Secondly, the cost of living has become extremely high as the value of the Mauritian rupee has fallen.
Thirdly, the view of many is that key institutions, like parliament, the police and parts of the judiciary, have been weakened. There’s low public trust in those institutions.
Fourth, the country has seen a proliferation of drugs. Heroin consumption, which peaked in the 1990s, is back along with a spread of synthetic drugs as Mauritius is now on the illicit trade route. Drugs are now considered to be one of the country’s most serious challenges.
The final straw was revelations from a wiretapping scandal, the week before the elections, which exposed conversations between a number of key individuals including the prime minister, the commissioner of police, ministers and members of the judiciary. The subjects of the conversations included the cover-up of the murder of a detainee. This considerably boosted the popularity of the opposition coalition right before the election.
What do the results tell us about the state of Mauritius’ democracy?
Despite the challenges, the result shows that Mauritius’ democracy is still strong and that the will of the people who voted for change was respected.
The constitution of Mauritius mandates that a general election is held every five years.
Since independence from the UK in 1968 Mauritius has held 12 general elections. For the most part, these have been run efficiently and fairly. But there have been concerns that the 2019 election was compromised.
The opposition lodged a number of complaints following the 2019 election. Ten petitions were lodged in the Mauritian supreme court exposing a number of irregularities. Although the court dismissed most of the petitions, the opposition was on high alert ahead of the latest poll to the possibility that the 2024 election might have similar irregularities or even be rigged.
But their fears proved unfounded. The professionalism and independence of the Electoral Commission Office prevailed. The outcome has dissipated any doubts concerning the integrity of the election.
How will the outgoing government be remembered?
Aside from the massive rise in the cost of living, it will be remembered for a shift towards repression.
Mauritius lost its status as a liberal democracy under Jugnauth and has become an electoral autocracy – a country where the government maintains tight control over political power.
There’s been evidence of this over the past five years. A culture of censorship and self-censorship has grown. Journalists, citizens and opposition parties have been harassed and there’s been increased citizen surveillance. State capture – a form of corruption where private interests influence a country’s policies and institutions to serve their own goals, often harming the public – became rampant.
In other ways the last five years have seen the lives of Mauritians improve.
For example, there was an increase in the minimum wage for those drawing a salary under MRU 50,000 (US$1,000). Old age pensions also rose by 385% – though some believe this was to pander to voters aged 60 years and above, who make up about 23% of the voting population.
Finally, the government will be remembered for the political agreement between the UK and Mauritius concerning the latter’s sovereignty on the Chagos islands.
What challenges lie ahead for the new government?
The prime minister, Navin Ramgoolam, has already been sworn in.
The challenges are multiple, but the urgent one is fixing the economy. The Mauritian rupee needs to be stabilised and inflation needs to be curtailed. New areas of growth also need to be identified due to an over reliance on the offshore and real estate sectors.
This is an important factor which could help to reverse Mauritius’ loss of skilled people. Mauritius ranks as the 5th most affected country by brain drain, with about 41% of Mauritian graduates leaving in search of better jobs abroad.
Finally, the opposition promised to re-establish trust in some of the core oversight institutions, such as the parliament, the police and the judiciary. This is crucial as this will help build back some of the island’s key democratic credentials that have been lost in the last 10 years.
