Why DPS says it must close Denver schools to avert “full-blown crisis”

Carrie Olson remembers the first time she was told Denver Public Schools would need to close schools because fewer babies were being born.

She had only been on the Board of Education for a year or two when the state demographer predicted the difficult decision that Olson — first elected in 2017 — and her colleagues will start weighing after Superintendent Alex Marrero presents his school closure plan this week.

At the time, Olson, a veteran educator, didn’t believe she would shut down a school as a board member. She hadn’t yet connected the dots, she said. Fewer babies mean fewer children attending school across the DPS system, leading, eventually, to the loss of tens of millions of dollars a year in per-pupil funding for Colorado’s largest district.

Now, Olson said, she and her colleagues are resigned to the fact they must make what likely will be one of the hardest decisions of their tenures on the board — a decision the majority resisted two years ago when presented with a similar plan by Marrero.

“It’s time for us to be looking at this,” said Olson, now the Denver school board’s president. “It’s time because we have to be fiscally responsible to our district and think about what’s best in serving all of the students.”

Marrero and district staff members have been tight-lipped about their closure plan, which the superintendent will present to the board during its Thursday meeting. The board is scheduled to vote on whether to adopt the recommendation Nov. 21.

DPS officials have not said how many schools will be on that list — the district has more than 200 — or where in Denver they might be located. The last time Marrero presented a list of schools to potentially close, the board — after a months-long process — finally agreed to close three schools.

Further school closures in Denver are now necessary to prevent “a full-blown crisis,” Marrero told the board last week. 

Public school enrollment is falling nationally

K-12 public school enrollment is falling across the United States as fewer babies are being born. The decline coincided with the arrival of the pandemic, which has also led to fewer students in public schools because of chronic absenteeism and a rise in homeschooling.

“There’s a declining birth rate across the nation,” Olson said.

Statewide, public school enrollment reached its lowest point in a decade — at 881,464 students — during the 2023-24 academic year as other districts are facing similar challenges as DPS, including Jeffco Public Schools and the Douglas County School District.

Jeffco already closed more than a dozen schools last year. The Douglas County School District is slated to announce its consolidation plan in April, with schools expected to close at the end of the 2025-26 academic year.

At DPS, enrollment peaked at 92,112 pupils in 2019 and continued to fall until last school year, when the unexpected arrival of hundreds of migrant children boosted the number of students in DPS classrooms. DPS enrollment grew by 371 students to 88,235 pupils during the 2023-24 academic year.

Despite that small increase, 3,877 fewer children were enrolled in Denver’s public schools last year than they were at the peak in 2019. DPS officials project enrollment will fall through the 2028-29 academic year.

DPS has not experienced a large number of students leaving to be homeschooled or attend private schools, district officials said, but it has faced an additional challenge with enrollment: gentrification.

Gentrification and rising housing costs have reshaped where children live in the city, even pushing families from Denver.

“People are moving to where they can actually afford to live,” said Rob Gould, president of the Denver Classroom Teachers Association.

Less students means less money for schools

Schools don’t just have fewer children in their classrooms when enrollment falls; they also receive less per-pupil funding.

DPS receives $11,750 per student in state funding each year, excluding other revenue streams, such as mill levy overrides.

The district has lost a total of $107 million in revenue since enrollment peaked in 2019. By 2028, the district forecasts DPS will bring in $70 million less annually than it did five years ago — and that’s the best-case scenario, Chief Finance Officer Chuck Carpenter said in a statement.

“And that’s why, as painful as it is, we need to take some action,” he said.

DPS, which has a $1.4 billion budget, is also forecasting a $2.6 million shortfall for the 2024-25 fiscal year. (That could change after enrollment numbers are finalized through the state’s October count.) Federal pandemic aid that propped up districts’ budgets in recent years has also run out.

The district’s consideration of school closures comes as it also is asking voters to approve a nearly $1 billion bond proposal. But, if it’s approved by voters Tuesday, the ballot measure won’t be used to support the district’s general budget. Instead, the funding would be used for maintenance and capital needs, such as adding air conditioning to schools.

The district also plans to use money from the bond sale to build a new school in the far northeast part of Denver, where enrollment is increasing.

Whether DPS closes schools or not, the district will continue to bring in less money as fewer students are enrolled. For schools, this can affect their ability to operate, much less provide the services needed to meet students’ academic and mental health needs, according to DPS officials.

When a school enrolls 100 fewer students, the building’s budget drops by about $1 million, Carpenter said.

On average, teachers cost DPS about $110,000 apiece annually, including salary and benefits. This means that without those 100 students, a school no longer has the money to pay nine employees, including teachers, mental health professionals, paraprofessionals and interventionists, Carpenter said. It can also mean fewer electives for students as a school wouldn’t have enough money to staff classes such as drama or foreign language.

DPS is spending between $15 million and $20 million in budget assistance to make sure schools with low enrollment just remain operational, Olson said.

“That’s unstable over time for us to continue,” she said

If the board decides to vote against Marrero’s closure plan, it’s possible schools will be forced to close “operationally” because there’s no way financially to keep them open, Olson said.

“Everybody has know this is a reality”

This will be Marrero’s second attempt at closing schools in two years. He first proposed a plan to shutter 10 schools in 2022, but the Board of Education was reluctant to do so, even after he cut the list to five. In the end, the board voted to close just three schools last year: Denver Discovery, Fairview Elementary, and Mathematics and Science Leadership Academy.

Two years ago, board members also criticized the district’s process for school closures, saying they were only given two weeks to make a decision and weren’t provided enough information on how the plan would be implemented.

This time, the process has looked slightly different — although the seven-member board will still only have two weeks between when the plan is announced and when they vote on Nov. 21. The board earlier this year opened the door for Marrero to present another school closure plan by passing a policy that set guidelines for his recommendation, including a timeline.

“Everybody has known this is a reality that is coming down the line for the last two years,” Gould said.

And that includes the school board, Olson said.

“Maybe we are a little more resigned this time,” Olson said about how board members are feeling about potential closures. “We’ve been as clear as possible as we can be that this is coming.”

But the possible closures are also drawing criticism in the community, including from Movimiento Poder, which advocates for racial justice in DPS schools.

School closures can affect families’ daily lives, including a child’s ability to access education if their parents don’t own a car, said Elsa Banuelos-Lindsay, executive director of Movimiento Poder.