On September 23, Israel announced Operation Northern Arrows. The operation has now continued for more than a month. The operation began with more than 1,600 airstrikes on various targets. On October 1, the ground operation began. While the air campaign has progressed from targeting Hezbollah’s command and control to striking rocket launchers and also targeting Hezbollah’s financial institutions, the ground campaign has been more focused on one goal.
The ground operation takes place close to the border. It is aimed at clearing Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure from the border area and dozens of villages, which Hezbollah festooned with tunnels and hidden arms caches. This is a difficult task, becoming increasingly deadly in the last week.
In some ways, the campaign has similarities to the 2006 Lebanon war. That war also began with airstrikes and then involved a ground operation. It lasted a month, and its ground operation was often considered haphazard and ill-organized. In retrospect, though, the war accomplished some goals, such as bringing some seventeen years of relative peace. Under the guise of that peace, Hezbollah increased its rocket arsenal from 13,000 to 150,000 rockets.The challenge in southern Lebanon is that while Hezbollah has suffered blows to its command and control, the group appears to be clinging on and it is capable of continued deadly operations. For instance, Hezbollah continues to launch rocket and drone barrages at Israel. For instance, on October 27 several people were wounded in a rocket attack on Tamra in northern Israel and people were wounded by a drone attack near Acre.
Daily occurrence
Yesterday people were killed in a rocket attack on Majd al-Krum. This is a daily occurrence. Although the rocket and drone attacks have taken place for more than a year, driving 60,000 Israelis from their homes in the north, the goal of Northern Arrows was to bring people back to those homes. However, in a month of war, the rocket fire continues to average around 100-200 rockets fired by Hezbollah a day. These continue to harm and kill civilians throughout northern Israel.
In addition the number of soldiers killed in southern Lebanon appears to be growing, rather than being reduced over time. The early strikes on Hezbollah, such as the killing of Radwan commanders in September and the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah, should have weakened the group’s command and control. However, the war on Hamas has shown that these Iranian-backed groups are capable of replacing commanders even as they suffer blows.
Hezbollah has suffered blows, including reports it may have lost 1,000 fighters in the last month of fighting, in addition to around 500 it lost in the year of combat from October 8, 2023, to September 15, 2024. Thousands of targets have been struck. However, Hezbollah continues to fight on.On October 27 the names of five reservists killed in Lebanon were released for publication by the IDF. These include members of the 228th Reserve Brigade. The deaths in Lebanon bring the overall total of soldiers killed since October 7 to 769. The 228th Reserve Brigade was called up to the north in late September as the air operation was still under way. It entered Lebanon as part of the 91st Division on October 7, the IDF said. The fallen in Lebanon also include five soldiers killed and several wounded, according to an IDF statement on October 25.
These were members of the 8th Brigade. On October 24, the IDF also announced that four soldiers were killed, including members of the 2nd Carmeli Brigade. More than thirty soldiers have been killed in the fighting in Lebanon since the operation began. At the same time, losses in Gaza have also mounted over the last weeks as the IDF has been fighting in Jabaliya.The two-front war, as well as the continued Hezbollah rocket fire, illustrates that despite successes, such as killing Sinwar on October 16 and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27, it does not necessarily reduce the losses on the frontline or lead to the rapid defeat of these terror groups.
Iran and its proxies are monitoring these fronts closely. Iranian state media frequently posts about Hezbollah’s “successes,” such as rocket fire. It also posts about IDF losses. For Iran, this is very important. It may become increasingly important as Iran seeks to recover from the IDF airstrikes on Iran overnight between October 25 and October 26.
For instance, Iranian media claimed on October 27 that “the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah has targeted several Zionist regime’s positions and settlements, resulting in the killing and injury of several Israeli soldiers in the northern occupied territories.” This report said Hezbollah launched 75 rockets at Israel. This was a large barrage and shows that the group continues to have the capability to fire large numbers of rockets. It doesn’t require many launchers to do this because trucks carrying up to 48 launch tubes have been found in Lebanon. The terrorist group would, therefore, only need a few vehicles or multiple launch tubes concealed in an area to carry out a large barrage.
Hezbollah also appears to be increasingly targeting civilian areas. It has caused alarms in these areas in the past, but the rocket attack that struck Tamra and Majd al-Krum appears to be relatively new locations for the Hezbollah rocket fire. The group has claimed in the past that it targets military areas, which are sometimes located near civilian areas. However, Hezbollah is now lashing out increasingly. Nevertheless, it keeps up the pretense of attacking military sites. According to Iran’s IRNA, Hezbollah targeted a “military industries” site near Acre in the attack on October 27.
The Iranian-backed terrorist group also claims to continue to target IDF soldiers near the border. It claimed on October 27 to have targeted IDF posts near Malkiya, Karmiel, and also Manara. It was not clear what exact sites Hezbollah was referring to, but this is part of the Hezbollah propaganda in which it claims it is targeting military positions. Hezbollah puts out reports to various pro-Iran media with the places it claims to have targeted noted in its statements.
This shows that Hezbollah’s local units that carry out the rocket attacks can provide information back to a central command of sorts, and this command puts the statements in the hands of Hezbollah media people who distribute it to pro-Iran media sites such as Al-Mayadeen or put it out via Hezbollah media such as Al-Manar. This illustrates that despite losses to command and control, Hezbollah can coordinate its attacks and keep track of the targets it claims to have aimed its munitions towards. The war in Lebanon, after 27 days of ground combat and more than a month of operations, appears to have a long way to go to defeat Hezbollah.
