The state assumes signicance as it surrounds Delhi from three sides and normally stays with the party which is in power at the Centre.
Caste equations
Haryana’s politics is usually seen from the prism of consolidation of Jat and Non-Jat castes. But this time, the divide appears less visible as protests by farmers and wrestlers, opposition to the Agniveer scheme, and unemployment have hogged the limelight.
Dalits votes are seen as the deciding factor this time. Of the state’s population, 33% are OBCs, 25% Jats and 21% SCs. BJP has given tickets to 22 OBCs, 16 Jats and 17 SCs.
Congress has given tickets to 20 OBCs, 28 Jats and 17 SCs. There are 36 such assembly seats where both Congress and BJP have fielded candidates from the same caste.
Congress game plan
Congress is aiming to capitalise on the anti-incumbency against BJP, especially in the aftermath of several protests, and consolidating the Jat-Dalit vote base. The major poll plank for the Congress is employment and welfare measures, including the promise of `6,000 per month old age pension and `2,000 per month to women.
BJP’s strategy
A triangular contest and sweeping the GT Road belt and Southern Haryana were BJP’s formula to win the state. But now, the election is emerging as a bipolar one—between BJP and Congress.
The BJP is focusing on its two catchment areas—GT Road and Southern Haryana, though it didn’t do that well during the Lok Sabha polls in these areas. It is also focusing on consolidating OBC votes and hoping that third party players like JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP would make some dent in Congress votes.
Third angle
Since its inception, Haryana has witnessed independents or party rebels getting elected on at least 10% of the assembly seats.
Both BJP and Congress are facing rebels on more than 20 assembly seats. JJP-ASP and INLD-BSP are trying hard to make a mark in this bipolar contest.
Why Haryana is important this time
BJP does not enjoy a majority in the Lok Sabha and it has had several farmers’ protest since 2014—from the land acquisition bill to the three farm laws.
If the BJP loses power in Haryana, which surrounds the national capital from three sides, and is already out of power in the Delhi assembly, crowd mobilisation against the Central government would be rather easy and would go unchecked.
