Iran’s multi-front strategy against Israel is facing its largest challenge of the eleven-month war. Iran launched the war on October 7, with the Hamas attack being the first major act of Iran’s plan for a wider regional assault on Israel. While Hamas was massacring Israelis, Iran put into action the rest of the multi-front operation, pushing Hezbollah to begin its attacks on Israel.
As Hezbollah launched medium and long range rockets at Israel on September 22, it is worth recalling that it began its war on Israel on October 8. Days later the Houthis in Yemen joined the attacks. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria also began attacks on US forces and soon Iraqi militias were priming drones to be used against Israel. It’s important to understand that the war that Israel is now fighting with Hezbollah began because of Iran’s multi-front war on Israel.
Iran’s goal has been to “Unite the arenas.” What this means is that it has been working with the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and militias in Iraq and Syria to coordinate attacks on Israel. It prepared the way via meetings in Lebanon between Hamas, Hezbollah and PIJ before the October war. It has prepared the way in other means as well, but helping the Houthis acquire long-range drones and ballistic missiles; and improve the arsenal of Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran’s initial plan after October 7 was that Hamas would push Israel into a war of attrition and then Hamas and PIJ would increase their attacks in the West Bank.
The IDF has now routed most of Hamas’ largest terror structures in the Gaza Strip. That means eliminating Hamas battalions and commanders and reducing the Hamas rocket threat. The IDF also took over the Philadelphi corridor, making it harder for Hamas to re-arm. In the West Bank the IDF has also preempted a growing insurgency by groups in the northern West Bank via increasingly strong raids aimed at Jenin, Nur Shams Camp, Tubas and other areas between July and September.
Now, the IDF is more free to focus on Hezbollah. In essence, what has happened is that Iran sought to pull off a multi-front war, but Israel has been working to defeat Iran’s proxies one at a time. It was not always clear if this would work, because Hamas continues to control much of Gaza and the threat from the West Bank remains. In addition the Houthis continue to launch missiles and drones at Israel, such as the drone attack in July on Tel Aviv and the missile attack targeting central Israel on September 15.
Hezbollah also escalated. It killed 12 children and teens in the Golan in July. The IDF killed a Hezbollah commander in response. Hezbollah tried to launch hundreds of rockets at Israel on August 25. Then Hezbollah carried out more large barrages of rockets in late August and early September. Rumors swirled that Israel’s Defense Minister, who was known for wanting a more strong policy against Hezbollah, might be pushed out. Then thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded on September 17. On September 18 Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded. On September 20 the IDF eliminated numerous Hezbollah commanders, estimates say about 16 of them. This has decimated Hezbollah’s top command structure. The group is fearful, chaotic and flailing.
The big test
For Iran this is now a big test. Iran had wanted to ring Israel with threats and make it hard for Israel to defeat any one of those threats. A knock-out blow against one of the Iranian proxies might help Israel return to the deterrence that it once had. It might also send a message to Iran that it can’t ring Israel with pawns. For eleven months Iran had much of the initiative and it dictated the tempo of the fronts, from Iraq to Yemen.
Now Hezbollah has suffered major blows. Hezbollah is trying on September 22 to fire longer range missiles at Israel. It is saying it has targeted the Ramat David airbase and this has set off sirens across hundreds of square kilometers of Israel, sending large numbers of people from Nazareth to Shefa’Amr to the Jezreel valley to shelters. However, Hezbollah is still scrambling to find a response. It had planned on a long war in which it had an equation where it would slowly escalate, like an anaconda snake slowly seeking prey. Now this slow method of Hezbollah has given Israel the opportunity to seek an advantage and potentially turn the tables on Hezbollah. Hezbollah has a large arsenal of rockets but if it can’t use them then Iran’s multi-front strategy is going to be in trouble.
![Volvo CE rolls out autonomous equipment at Volvo Days [part 2]](https://i0.wp.com/electrek.co/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2024/09/ta15_MAIN.jpg?resize=1200%2C628&quality=82&strip=all&ssl=1 "Volvo CE rolls out autonomous equipment at Volvo Days [part 2]")
