Ill-suited subsidy spurs precarious revival
In the years following its launch, it gradually became clear that the cost of the Superbonus had been dramatically underestimated, after lax enforcement led to thousands of homeowners commencing works without filing official applications. Its total expected cost ballooned to €219 billion, over six times the €35 billion predicted by Conte. In 2023, Meloni’s government hurriedly imposed a deadline on new applications, while winding down another option allowing homeowners to transfer their credits to banks and firms.
That proved a surprising boon for earthquake-stricken towns like Amatrice, where residents were granted an extension permitting them to use the scheme’s full benefits until December 2025. As the Superbonus lost steam elsewhere, builders suddenly had an incentive to return to the tougher work of earthquake rehabilitation.
And so they did. Today, Amatrice bustles with construction workers in dusty overalls, manning Komatsu diggers and shifting great mounds of earth. Owing to the lack of habitable space in the town, many live in the two remaining hotels (both destroyed and subsequently rebuilt), while others occupy the prefabricated houses built for residents.
Now, as much as 20 percent of the reconstruction depends on the Superbonus, according to Guido Castelli, an Italian senator charged with overseeing earthquake-stricken towns. While there is no specific data for Amatrice, new applications across earthquake-stricken zones after March 2024 surged from low levels to around €121.5 million.
However, that increased dependence may also prove fatal. The fiscal impact of the Superbonus is one reason why Italy’s budget deficit surged to 7.4 percent of GDP in 2023, putting it on collision course with Brussels. Italy, along with several other European countries including France, is now obliged to economize, and the Superbonus has become an obvious target.
Just in March, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti threatened to scrap all the privileges afforded to Amatrice, along with the three other earthquake-devastated towns in similar positions. Pressure from Castelli forced Giorgetti to back down, but the 2025 deadline threatens to put the Superbonus out of reach for many projects which, because of the scale of the destruction, are vastly more difficult to arrange than simple refurbishments elsewhere.
