A new Maariv survey conducted by “Lazar Research,” led by Dr. Menachem Lazar in collaboration with Panel4All, indicates that a right-wing party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett would emerge as the largest party if an election were held.
The survey, published on Friday, suggests that Bennett’s hypothetical party would secure 21 mandates, surpassing all other parties.
In this scenario, Likud would receive 19 mandates, while National Unity would obtain 14. If Bennett’s party aligns with the current opposition bloc, it could form a coalition with 67 MKs, leaving Netanyahu’s coalition with only 46 mandates. Notably, Bennett’s party would gain nine seats from undecided voters.
The survey also shows that Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beytenu would each receive 11 mandates, Shas, the Democrats, and Otzma Yehudit would secure 8 mandates each, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would get 7, and Hadash-Ta’al would obtain 5. The Religious Zionist Party (RZP) and Ra’am would each receive 4 mandates.
A stark difference
If Bennett does not form a new party, the results would be starkly different. The opposition would hold 59 seats, the coalition 51, and Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would split the remaining 10 seats.
In this case, Likud would lead with 22 mandates, closely followed by National Unity with 21. Yisrael Beytenu would have 15, and Yesh Atid would have 14. Shas, Otzma Yehudit, and the Democrats would each receive 9 mandates. UTJ would secure 7, Hadash-Ta’al 6, and RZP and Ra’am would remain at 4 mandates.
This shows almost no change from previous polls. Earlier surveys showed that a Bennett-led right-wing party would receive a similar number of votes despite a slow Likud electoral recovery.
The survey also reveals that a majority of Israelis (57%) believe Israel could only manage a multi-theatre war with direct US support, with just 29% confident in Israel’s ability to handle it independently.
Additionally, 47% of Israelis oppose Gallant’s removal from his position, while 27% support it.
