Iran and its proxies in the region are going through the motions of preparing to take revenge on Israel for the alleged killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran (Israel has been mum), and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut.
Iran and its proxies know they have to do something in the wake of these important hits because they sense these are major pushback from Israel after nine and a half months of Iran’s proxies being on the offensive. In a sense, Tehran has dictated the tempo since October 7, and now it is worried it might be losing.
In order to begin to prepare the region for Iran’s revenge, the regime is not seeking to project any kind of surprise attack. Instead, it is completely public in order to kind of argue its case before it attacks. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the
“Islamic Republic of Iran views it as a duty to take vengeance for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil,” Iran’s IRNA state media said. “The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime martyred our beloved guest inside our house and made us mournful, but it paved the way for a harsh punishment to be imposed on it,” said the supreme leader in his message.
The spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry said that “Haniyeh was a tireless fighter who combated the Israeli regime throughout his life to free the holy Quds,” Nasser Kanaani said on Wednesday. The death of Haniyeh in Tehran “will strengthen the deep ties between the Islamic Republic of Iran and dear Palestine and Resistance,” the Foreign Ministry said.
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of parliament, wrote in a post that, “The Islamic country of Iran and the Resistance Front will not spare the blood of their martyred brother.” He later said on Thursday that Iran would respond at a time of its choosing. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said something similar. This is clearly a message of discipline from the regime. Everyone is saying the same thing. “Indeed Allah is all-mighty, avenger,” Pezeshkian said, referencing a verse in the Quran.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps also made two statements slamming Israel and commemorating the Hamas leader. IRGC chief Maj.-Gen. Hossein Salami spoke about the “fire of anger and desire for revenge.” He slammed Israel for the Beirut airstrike, while Iran blamed the US for being linked to the assassination of Haniyeh. This statement was made by Iran’s envoy to the UN and indicates that Iran is creating a case to attack US forces in Iraq and Syria.
Hamas deputy leader addressed mourners
Hamas Deputy Leader Khalil al-Hayya addressed mourners who came to a funeral prayer for Haniyeh at the University of Tehran: “The Zionist regime proved to the whole world that this regime is the epitome of evil and unrest in the region, and the whole world should try to uproot this cancer.”
Iran’s revenge mode is intended to prepare the ground for what comes next; its goal is to basically telegraph to the region what it will do.
It also did this in April after it accused Israel of an airstrike in Damascus. The strike hit a building next to the Iranian consulate, and the Islamic Republic retaliated almost two weeks after the strike. On the night of April 13, Tehran launched ballistic missiles and drones at Israel. Iran had also paved the way for that attack.
