Asteroid the Size of the Statue of Liberty Could Strike Earth in 2032 – Is NASA Running Out of Time?

A giant space rock hurtling towards Earth at thousands of miles per hour might sound like something from a sci-fi film, but a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, is indeed on a potential collision course with our planet.

First detected late last year, NASA estimates its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40 to 90 metres) across—potentially larger than the Statue of Liberty. Scientists have recently raised the predicted chance of impact to 1 in 43 (2.3%), with a projected collision date of 22nd December 2032.

A Looming Threat: Asteroid 2024 YR4

In a concerning update on X, a scientist suggests ‘we might not be able to stop 2024 YR4’ from striking Earth, even with a deflection attempt. London-based volcanologist and author Dr Robin George Andrews notes that we ‘have less than eight years to potentially deal with it.’

‘You need 10 years or more to build, plan and execute an asteroid deflection mission,’ he said. ‘We don’t have much time.’ NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, a remarkable achievement, showed how a spacecraft’s impact could change a space rock’s trajectory away from Earth.

Will DART Work On 2024 YR4?

According to a NASA report, the DART spacecraft, launched from California in November 2021, concluded its 10-month journey with a successful impact on the asteroid Dimorphos on 26th September 2022.

Dimorphos, roughly 560 feet across, orbits a larger asteroid, Didymos. Both are located about 6.8 million miles from Earth. The impact shortened Dimorphos’ orbit by over half an hour—a greater success than NASA had hoped.

However, neither Dimorphos nor Didymos posed any threat to Earth; DART was a test run for what might be necessary if an asteroid ever does endanger our planet. While acknowledging DART’s remarkable success, Dr. Andrews suggested ‘we might not be able to stop 2024 YR4’ using the same method.

‘It doesn’t mean we can use kinetic impactors like it to deflect any asteroid whenever we want,’ he said. ‘So much could go wrong if we try and hit it with something like DART.’

Rubble Piles And Uncertainties

Most asteroids aren’t solid rock but ‘rubble piles’—collections of loose boulders, rocks, and sand held together by their weak gravitational attraction. Details about the 2024 YR4’s precise size are still scarce, and it is also unclear whether it is a rubble pile.

However, hitting rubble pile asteroids with a spacecraft like DART could create a cloud of debris that might still head toward Earth. ‘Nobody wants to accidentally “disrupt” an asteroid because those components can still head for Earth,’ Dr Andrews said.

There’s also the possibility that a massive space endeavour, similar to DART, wouldn’t sufficiently alter the asteroid’s trajectory. ‘With only a few years down the line, we could accidentally deflect it – but not enough to make it avoid the planet,’ the expert added.

‘Then, it still hits Earth, just somewhere else that wasn’t going to be hit.’ He added: ‘I’m not saying a kinetic impactor mission, or missions, couldn’t work. But we don’t have much time, and we don’t have enough info about this rapidly fading asteroid to properly inform our planetary defence decisions yet.’

Low Odds, High Stakes

It’s important to remember that 2024 YR4 has only a 2.3% chance (1 in 43) of hitting Earth in December 2032. Dr Andrews emphasised that ‘the odds of an impact remain low’, comparing it to choosing the correct button out of 43.

‘I don’t think you should be concerned,’ he said in an accompanying blog post. ‘When more observations come in, it’s probable that the impact odds will plummet to a zero as the orbit of the asteroid is more precisely defined.’

If it lands in a desert or the ocean, it will ‘harm nobody,’ but an impact on a town or city would ‘destroy much of it.’ NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program estimates that Earth is struck by a football field-sized asteroid roughly every 5,000 years and a civilisation-ending asteroid about every million years.

A History Of Impacts

A NASA report last year concluded that we’re ill-prepared for an asteroid impact, even with 14 years’ warning. NASA estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid is at least as big as the Tunguska asteroid, which was about 130 feet across.

In 1908, the Tunguska event became the most enormous asteroid impact in recorded history when it exploded in the atmosphere, flattening 830 square miles (2,150 square km) of forest. A 2019 study suggests that many people lost consciousness, and at least three deaths resulted directly from the Tunguska event.