Next year we will pass the milestone of a quarter century of a continued human presence in space thanks to the International Space Station. Led by NASA’s efforts to lead in LEO, NASA plans to take the lead in the commercial space station market as well. However, NASA’s method might not be what we expect it to be.
NASA is seemingly moving the goalposts with how it plans to operate in low Earth orbit post-ISS’s retirement. For the last 24 years, the term “continued human presence” has been used to describe NASA’s plans in LEO. However, there are two new terms the agency is starting to use in-house: “continuous heartbeat” and “continuous capability.”
The continuous heartbeat thinking is what we’ve had since Expedition 1’s launch from Kazakhstan in November of 2000. This is always what many commercial LEO station providers are expecting to have in place in the future, and researchers expect this to occur as soon as NASA retires the ISS.
This system benefits the companies supplying the station with cargo and crews as it ensures long-term customers for their services. It also benefits the researchers, allowing them to have access to a crewed laboratory in space year-round rather than just a few times a year.
Continuous capability is a new way of thinking at NASA that the agency might not need to have astronauts in space 24/7. Instead, it would just need to have the ability when they need it. This would be a break from the current ideology that NASA shouldn’t break the continuous human presence in space streak it started alongside Russia.
Industry experts reacted to the change at a recent conference. Vast CEO Max Haot felt the change might be necessary. “If the NASA procurement continues to say it’s zero or permanently crewed, all it will do is delay the first commercial space station,” he said.
In the history of space stations, none have ever been permanently crewed from the start. Russia’s Salyut and NASA’s Skylab space stations saw intermittent use for most of their lives. Mir was the first to have continued handovers between crews starting in 1989 through its retirement before we had a short break until Expedition 1 launched to the ISS.
China has only recently begun continued operations in space with its Tiangong Space Station in recent years, taking a similar path as the Soviet Union did with several part-time operated stations before it.
One of the biggest concerns regarding the lack of continued human presence in space by NASA and its partners is the ability of China to draw European countries away from NASA. This echoes the crisis seen post-Space Shuttle retirement, where Russia became the prominent player in launch capability and the only way for humans to launch into space until SpaceX launched Crew Dragon.
China has reportedly offered free seats on future crew rotations to countries in order to gain their partnership.
NASA’s Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy shared that no matter what process NASA takes with retiring the ISS and moving to commercial, the agency wants either a continuous heartbeat or capability in place before the ISS is deorbited.
Expected incoming Administrator Jared Isaacman will likely keep this methodology when he takes the helm next year. Although he will want to move those timelines and funding up to ensure NASA’s partners can meet a 2030 deadline.
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