NEW DELHI: For whom the bell tolled this year? The year 2024 came with Lok Sabha elections and eight state assembly polls, setting the stage for a political face-off.
Contrary to the predictions, BJP faced stiff competition as Lok Sabha elections threw up a major surprise as the saffron party had to contend with a shaky majority based entirely on NDA partners to form the government. BJP, however, turned things around in the second half of the game as it managed to win crucial state assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra respectively.
2024 can also be seen as a watershed moment for the regional parties as they challenged the dominance of national parties and shifted the debate once again towards local issues.
Meanwhile, INDIA bloc’s future, which looked to be bright after the general elections, seems bleak as the alliance shows internal cracks and ruptures after failing to keep the dice rolling in the subsequent assembly elections.
Here is the list of winners and losers of 2024:
Winners
On the backdrop of a pandemic and a global recession, Narendra Modi managed to thrust himself as Prime Minister for the third term.
However, contrary to the predictions, BJP won 240 seats in the elections and its allies helped it get past the 282-majority mark with a little help from TDP (16) and JD(U).
The second half of the year was, however, more fruitful for PM Modi and the Bharatiya Janata party as it managed to win the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections with a thumping majority.
PM Modi and home minister Amit Shah proved their electoral mastery again. Their strategy, spearheaded by PM Modi’s ‘ek hai toh safe hai’ pitch, helped BJP and the Mahayuti alliance achieve a historic victory in Haryana and Maharashtra. BJP’s record performance in the assembly elections showcased that ‘Modi wave’ is not on the decline, in fact, the best is yet to come.
Devendra Fadnavis
After a long deliberation, Devendra Fadnavis returned to Maharashtra’s top job after BJP emerged as the biggest winner of this assembly election by recording its own best in Maharashtra assembly elections.
Fadnavis was credited for the BJP-led Mahayuti’s success in the state, especially in the Vidarbha region. “Devendra is Nagpur’s gift to the country,” PM Modi had said of him at an election rally. The 54-year-old leader, with deep roots in RSS, helped BJP work in coordination with the organisation after the Lok Sabha setback.
Akhilesh Yadav
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav managed to make a large dent in BJP’s momentum in Uttar Pradesh despite the predictions that the saffron party would match their 2019 performance, if not better, after the Ram Mandir inauguration. The cornerstone of the INDIA bloc in the state, Samajwadi Party scooped out 37 seats and established itself once again as one of the big wigs of politics in Uttar Pradesh.
The party, however, suffered a setback in subsequent assembly bypoll where it gave away two of its seats to BJP. The BJP won six of a total of 9 seats while Akhilesh’s SP got only two seats.
JD(U) supremo Nitish Kumar, a veteran of coalition politics, flipped the script of Lok Sabha elections after leaving the INDIA bloc despite being one of its founding members.
Despite declaring unconditional support for Modi 3.0, the fact remains that Kumar holds the key to the Modi 3.0 government by bargaining hard for some of the key issues. JD(U) floated their opinion on some of the flagship issues like Centre’s push for lateral entry into top government positions and a caste census across India.
At an event with PM Modi in Patna, Nitish Kumar had promised the Prime Minister Modi that he won’t undergo a change of heart yet again. This elicited a guttural laugh from PM Modi, who certainly hopes that Nitish doesn’t have another change of heart in the near future.
Chandrababu Naidu
Chandrababu Naidu turned out to be one of the most important allies for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. The last-minute electoral patch-up with BJP and a return to the NDA fold resulted in a windfall for TDP in Andhra Pradesh.
As part of the seat-sharing deal of the NDA partners, TDP was allocated 144 assembly seats and 17 Lok Sabha constituencies, while the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 assembly seats.
Naidu emerged not only as a king in Andhra Pradesh but also as a kingmaker as he also seems to hold the key to the NDA government at the Centre after TDP won 16 out of 17 Lok Sabha seats.
Hemant Soren retained power in Jharkhand for the second consecutive time despite his arrest by the Enforcement Directorate in a money laundering case earlier this year.
Soren’s electoral strategy was centered around the welfare initiatives like “Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana”, alongside the adivasi asmita narrative of his government.
Soren and his wife, legislator Kalpana Soren, conducted approximately 200 campaign rallies following the election announcement.
The party demonstrated resilience despite significant obstacles. Despite prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments, the BJP proved unable to secure sufficient backing to establish a government.
Losers
Rahul Gandhi started 2024 with crisscrossing through 15 states, 110 districts, and over 100 Lok Sabha seats in his Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0. The outreach programme gave a superlative effort by the Gandhi scion, helping Congress to give their best performance in the last two general elections.
With this, Rahul Gandhi also became the face of the anti-BJP INDIA bloc and leader of the opposition in Lok Sabha.
In the second half of the year, Congress, however, yet again failed to make any impact. Despite the Lok Sabha advantage, Congress lost Haryana and repeated its record in Maharashtra. Star campaigner Gandhi failed to change the party’s fate despite BJP fighting anti-incumbency in Haryana and Maharashtra. Congress also failed to garner votes with the help of farmers and wrestlers who were in a direct fight with the BJP governments.
In Jammu and Kashmir, Congress is a part of the government but only by piggybacking on the National Conference. It was understood that the NC came into a pre-poll alliance with Congress to help consolidate wins in the Jammu region where BJP holds dominance. The party, however, failed to cause any significant damage to BJP in the region.
Sharad Pawar
After an impressive performance in the Lok Sabha, Sharad Pawar’s NCP-SP has now become one of the smallest parties in the Maharashtra assembly elections. In the Pawar vs Pawar battle, Sharad’s nephew Ajit emerged with a stronger position, while the veteran leader managed to secure only 10 out of the 68 seats.
Ajit Pawar’s decision to field his wife, Sunetra Pawar, against cousin Supriya Sule in the Baramati seat turned out to be a setback for him, ultimately benefiting Sharad Pawar. Additionally, Sharad Pawar has hinted at retirement once his Rajya Sabha term concludes in 2026. Does this mark the end of Sharad Pawar’s active political career?
Arvind Kejriwal
After a dismal performance in Delhi in the general elections, the Aam Aadmi Party’s efforts to make inroads in Haryana also hit a roadblock as the assembly results were completely against the party’s favor.
The AAP had campaigned on the strength of its popular governments in neighboring Delhi and Punjab. The Haryana results come at a time when Arvind Kejriwal had relinquished his position as Delhi’s chief minister, stating that he would only resume the post if the AAP formed a government after next year’s assembly elections.
While the Haryana elections may not directly impact upcoming assembly elections in Delhi, a failure to secure even a single seat after contesting nearly all of them could dampen the spirits of AAP workers.
Naveen Patnaik
After being in power for an impressive 23 years, BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik lost Odisha to BJP after his party managed to win only 51 out of 147 seats in the assembly elections. BJP also swept the Lok Sabha elections in the state and won 20 out of 21 parliamentary seats.
A key factor behind the BJD’s decline was the rising anti-outsider sentiment, particularly directed at VK Pandian, the trusted aide and private secretary of Naveen Patnaik. Pandian, a former IAS officer, held significant influence within both the BJD and the state’s administrative machinery, often being viewed as the de facto ruler.
Pandian’s outsider status from Tamil Nadu, created resentment among the Odia population, who grew increasingly disillusioned with his dominance and approach to governance. The BJP effectively tapped into this sentiment, portraying the BJD as a party controlled by an unelected bureaucrat.
Exit Polls
The biggest loser of 2024 was without any doubt, the Exit Polls, which lost all its credibility after wrong predictions in election after election. Most exit polls had given BJP a comfortable lead of over 350, with an average of 371 from the most meaningful pollsters in the Lok Sabha elections.
The miscalculation of voters’ perceptions can likely be attributed to factors such as insufficient sample size, tight deadlines, competition, geographical challenges, linguistic barriers, and financial stakes.
In both large-scale elections, like the Lok Sabha elections, and smaller ones, such as the assembly polls in Haryana, Maharashtra, and Jharkhand, the actual results often differed from exit poll predictions, with Jammu & Kashmir being the only exception.
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